Somalia is plunged into crucial political and constitutional deadlock. Unfortunately, the political stalemate is misunderstood as electoral impasse and viewed lack of collaboration and compromise between President Farmaajo and in particularly, presidents Deni and Madoobe. It is much deeper constitutional conflict and may cause again the collapse of the country’s central government. The deadlock is about shaping the future power and authority of the central government versus the federalism and the autonomy of the state governments. The deadlock is the result of long overdue failure of finalizing the nation’s constitution. Previously, President Mahmoud was also in a constant conflict with state governments due to the absence of national constitution to demarcate the respective roles and responsibilities of state governments versus FGS. Today, the deadlock has reached to a tipping point and the country’s unity is at crossroads. President Deni righty affirmed it is not fair that three Darood leaders define the political future of the nation. He strongly recommended that all political stakeholders must be engaged in a fair and transparent process to move forward. He stood up to defend the nation’s constitution.
Hawiye Misfortune
Too many Hawiye politicians are physically visible in the political scene, but invisible at the negotiation table. Hawiye politicians lack substance and political vision.
The Hawiye politicians can be categorized into four main groups:
- Handpicked state presidents and BRA leader – this group regularly attend all meetings. However, hardly heard their press releases, comments and views on the current debate. It is questionable if they represent the Hawiye constituency. They choose to remain silent, despite their responsibilities towards their constituency. They seem to support president Farmaajo, but do not put forward their rationale support.
- Presidential Candidates – too many on the list, but shame on all of them. The candidates were high ranking officials including former presidents, PM, federal Ministers and members of the lower and upper parliament. They were in authority position to avoid this political mess and had the opportunity to establish a constitutional based process and procedures for fair and transparent elections. Their inability was further proved when they chose public demonstration as political action in high risk environment. Thanks to president Farmaajo who stopped the risk of bloodshed of innocent people and the looting of properties. Large crowd gathering is a perfect opportunity for suicide bombers to kill as many as possible. I wonder what makes them the right people to pullout the country from this constitutional mess.
- Hawiye “spoilers” – these are Hawiye legislators and senators who have nothing to offer constructively, but to insult and offend the dignity of women and minority politicians. Unfortunately, they have been in politics in many years, but far away to understanding political correctness and the duty of care to fellow legislators. The speaker of the house has rightly banned from the floor of the parliament.
- The Prime Minister – “povero” PM Robleh, have been recently appointed and expected to lead the nation through these difficult times. Although, appointed by the president and approved the parliament, the PM has an independent fiduciary duty and responsibility to the country. He should understand that it is a conflict of interest for an incumbent president to directly maneuver and manage the election process. The PM failed to take an independent action to ensure a fair, transparent, and inclusive election process. Mr. Prime Minister also failed to differentiate loyalty duty to the president and the independence of the prime minister’s office.
Hawiye populous cheered for President Deni for standing up and refusing the silent “coup d’état” of president Farmaajo. Thank you to President Deni for protecting the nation’s democracy and its constitution.
Understanding the current Political Deadlock
Electoral impasse is not the fundamental problem of Somalia political deadlock. The proposed electoral agenda is just the means to achieve a political end through the manipulation of electoral process. The real political deadlock is about two opposing political ideologies of “centralism versus federalism”. President Farmaajo envisions to impose a strong central government system across the nation. He implemented his vision in Galmudug, Hirshabele, South West and BRA and in the midst of capturing Jubaland by military force. Ultimately, he will conquest the peaceful Puntland State.
On the other hand, led by Puntland, are vividly supporting a federal system as defined in the current provisional constitution. Somali people have lost the trust of centralized government system. The civil and the tribal war was in fact caused by powerful, corrupted, injustice and ineffective central government. These destructive traits continue to prevail within the current FGS.
Under the federalism system, Puntland and Somaliland, in particularly, have successfully established functional governments, security, the rule of the law and democratic political process. In addition, government services reached out to all small towns and villages, while FGS controls a small part in Mogadishu, despite all the resources and military personal at their disposal.
President Deni is not prepared to compromise the hard work of Puntland’s people in building safe, prosperous and secure state in the last 20 years. A case in example, a young girl was raped in Galkao and perpetrators were immediate brought to justice. While, 13 men raped a young girl and tossed from high-rise building in Mogadishu and the culprits are still at large and most likely protected by their tribes. From personal experience, I have travelled between Garowe and Galkao as a free citizen with respect and dignity, while my trip in Galmudug, was subject to tribal permission in every city. I paid large amount of money for my movement. President Madoobe has made Kismayo the safest city in the country. I enjoyed walking and joking in the streets of the city at night. Most likely, he would extended the rule of law across Jubaland, if FGS stopped their unconstitutional interventions.
Centralized Movements in Horn Africa
President Farmaajo’s centralized vision was inspired by Abe Ahmed’s undo of Ethiopian Federal political system and the Eritrean powerful dictator. Prime Minister Ahmed has ultimate vision to create one powerful centralized government in Horn of Africa. Political and military maneuvering to destroy the stability of Djibouti has already started. Current events in Ethiopia are a warning bell for Somalia. President Farmaajo’s war in Gedo region, his recently dispatched federal troops to Puntland and buildup of his tribal troops in Mogadishu are very much similar to the Tigray war of Ethiopia. President Farmaajo vision is also a looming danger to Somaliland. With the support of Ethiopian military, he will tempt to capture Somaliland in the near future. He already started communications and contacts with military leaders in Somaliland. Ironically, Somaliland politicians in Mogadishu are blindly key supporters of President Mr. Farmaajo. As reported, Somaliland has recently charged a well known military general for treason.
President Farmaajo has been gradually implementing his centralized agenda. He attracted disfranchised tribes of Darood, Dir, Hawiye, and minorities’ politicians. All these tribes and politicians were voiceless in their respective state governments and they envision to achieve their interest at centralized political system. President Farmaajo also removed from office two important and well experienced South-West politician and replaced to his own loyal leaders. He also established his loyalists in Galmudug, Hirshabele and BRA and strong presence of his own tribal military in Vila Somalia.
Farmaajo’s political manoeuvering is dangerous to the recent peace and stability of the country. Somalia cannot be ruled by old fashion dictatorship style. Somali people has long suffered under centralized government system and has no appetite to return to it. The good news, Somali people are willing to collaborate and hold together the nation under agreed upon and transparent federal system.
Conclusion
Two words to conclude. Somalia needs an inclusive, transparent and consensus electoral process. The future federal government must address the deep political divide in the country. The current events are also a wake up call for Hawiye state governments and BRA to define their own vision to participate the political debate. So we have not seen clear position from Hawiye leadership. Farmaajo’s military build up is an imminent danger to our fragile peace and security. Hawiye people are the first to suffer any political instability and military actions.
So long until next time.
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Abdi Siyad Qoobey, Doctor of Architecture and MSC of Rural and Regional Planning, specialized in local governance and political strategies. I welcome any constructive criticism and can be reached at Abdisiad114@gmail.com
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Xafiiska Wararka Qaranimo Online | North America
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_____________________________________________________________________________________Xafiiska Wararka Qaranimo Online | Mogadishu, Somalia
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